Saturday, February 26, 2011

About the changes


In the Middle East, often the most unexpected happen. Last month, old, well-established regimes fell. Fall of these dictators is not the most unexpected story, but the way they fell, was something, which was never predicted by any Western analysts (at least, I never read or heard such). The power of Tunisia's Ben Ali, and Egypt's Mubarak were not terminated by military intervention (like it happened in Iraq in 2003), nor by murder (like Mubarak's predecessor, Anwar Sadat), neither by a civil war or a coup, or any other known ways in the Middle East. They had to leave their office as a result of a way of angry protests, mostly by the masses of the young, unemployed population.

Watching, and reading the coverages, i didn't notice any burning American or Israeli flags, didn't see masked, armed terrorist-type marching. They were quite similar to the big protests in Europe: some objects caught fire, but the people behaved mostly peaceful (some cases, like beating and molesting Western journalists could make us worry though, but let's be optimistic at this point). The events were spread through internet social networks, such as Facebook, or Twitter. These sudden revolutions were carried out by a society of young Arabs, who use the internet, and see there the World outside, while they are fed up with their situation. Maybe the new generation of Arabs represents something, which has never existed before in these countries (or if it has, it had to hide): the Civil Society.
It is clear, that even if this society will not be ruling these countries, it will definitely be an important segment, which the new rulers (whomever they will be) will have to listen to.
Now, the question is: what do they (this new society) want? How do they think about politics? We don't know this yet. They will not even necessary be united in any idea, or goal. All we know is that they wanted change. But there is a chance now. Since they didn't show any signs of anti-Israel sentiment, hopefully they will not want to destroy the Jewish state, and they will not listen to the propaganda of hatred. They might say: "You, Jews can keep that twenty-something thousand square kilometers, we still have more than 10 million."

What I am saying, is of course not sure at this moment. The future is very uncertain now. We don't know, which direction these countries will turn after the fall of their previous dictators. I am afraid, even this new Arab society doesn't have any idea about it either. There is an unbelievable ideological vacuum there. But now, if we (Israel and the Westerners) communicate, and make our relations with the Arabs wisely, we can help them forming a new Middle East of peace, and mutual appreciation.

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